This article is the opinion of the author and not necessarily that of the Los Angeles compLexity or its parent companies.

Peawok’s Daily CGS Predictions

Written By: Michael “Peawok” Fleming

We’re finally here. The 2008 Region One Playoffs. It’s been too long, and thank God we’re here. I’m getting exhausted with predictions. Not saying I won’t keep going, should it still be in demand, but looking at statistics after statistics after statistics and whatever else and going on feelings and whatnot is rather tiring. Not to mention my fingers are starting to fall off from 1,000 word prediction article, and sometimes another article as well, a day. To sum up my predictions season:

Dallas Venom > Carolina Core 24-22
San Francisco Optx > Chicago Chimera 23-19
Los Angeles CompLexity > New York 3D 22-21
Record: 1-2
Final Regular Season Record: 10-15
So I didn’t do too great. Not much else to say. CompLexity screwed me in like five matchups though so it’s not too bad.

I’m going to save a huge recap of those past matches, as I’m adding a bit to my analysis of the matches tonight. It’s postseason, so I’m raising the predictions bar. I’m even throwing in some odds, so if you’re into gambling here’s what my proverbial “house” is running. Here are tonight’s Semi Finals predictions:

New York 3D (11-1) vs. Carolina Core (4-8)

Peawok’s Odds: 4-1 in favor of New York

New York Roster

Counter Strike Source: 8-4, #2 Seed
Dead or Alive Female: 7-5, #3 Seed
Dead or Alive Male: 2-10, #6 Seed
FIFA 08: 6-6, #3 Seed
Forza Motorsport 2: 8-4, #1 Seed

Carolina Core Roster

Counter Strike Source: 5-7, #4 Seed
Dead or Alive Female: 7-5, #4 Seed
Dead or Alive Male: 7-5, #2 Seed
FIFA 08: 5-7, #4 Seed
Forza Motorsport 2: 8-4, #2 Seed

Match Order: FORZA, DOA-F, FIFA, CS:S (Part 1), DOA-M, Counter Strike Source (Part 2)
New York has been full cylinders all season, going 11-1 and destroying Chimera’s old 8-4 record from last season. They have looked fantastically strong all season. The only match they lost, surprisingly enough, is to Carolina. However, that also happened to be the night of the terrible storms and subsequent blackout, halting the match for well over an hour and killing any momentum. They, in turn, had to play in the apartments.

Carolina have been terrible for most of the season. They are 4-8, and have lost their last five matches, yet still made the playoffs. Of course, with playoffs you have one shot, so if they play like they can they have a good shot.

The key matchups here are Counter Strike Source and Dead or Alive. This is where both teams have the ability to draw a lot of blood. FIFA and Forza are important, but more points can be won in DOA and Counter Strike.

This season alone and head to head, 3D leads Counter Strike 2-1. 3D has won close once (10-9), and shut out Core 15-3 once as well. Core, however, have also won one match 14-4. If either team scores huge, this match is over. However, the map tonight is de_inferno, which these teams have played more times than I can count. This will come down to who executes better in game.

Although Chappelle won the last head to head matchup against Offbeat Ninja, 5-3, Offbeat still leads overall 5-1. This is where nerves will come in. Should Chappelle be relaxed, he has a good shot. If he isn’t he’ll crumble. Lucky for him, he isn’t the last match. However, this is where Core can easily make up points.

Coolsvilla has been on fire recently, going 20-2 in her final four matches, including a 5-0 thrashing on Mystik. After being hyped up into the number two female due to her strong World Finals play and combine victory, she has performed poorly, going 5-7 with several unfortunate losses. Head to head, Coolsvilla is leading five games to one. This is where Carolina will need points. They can take the lead here, and likely hold the lead to CS:S should Mystik win big. What’s important about this matchup is that, in Mark Dolven’s own words, Mystik wins big, or loses big. She’ll panic if Coolsvilla gets ahead. Recent matches and these two girls’ head to head history gives the advantage to Coolsvilla.

While FIFA and Forza have important points as well, they aren’t key matchups for these teams. I doubt we’ll see much more than a 2-0 victory in FIFA and, at best, a 5-2 win in Forza. With Forza being first, we’ll likely see both teams just hold their spots and go for whatever points they can get. I’m giving the advantage to Core in Forza just because they are winning the head to head 2-1. In FIFA, I think Wizakor will come out strong with a plus two point differential, practically equalizing the score should Core win Forza.

In the end, this game will likely come down to Counter Strike. It will not be a blowout, unless one of the Source teams play terribly.
Here’s how I predict the match plays out:

FORZA: 5-2 Core
FIFA: 3-1 3D
DOAF: 5-1 3D
DOAM: 5-3 Core
CSS: 10-8 3D
3D wins: 23-18

Dallas Venom (9-3) vs. San Francisco Optx (7-5)

Peawok’s Odds: 7-5 in favor of Dallas

Dallas Venom Roster

Counter Strike Source: 9-3, #1 Seed
Dead or Alive Female: 8-4, #2 Seed
Dead or Alive Male: 11-1, #1 Seed
FIFA 08: 3-9, #6 Seed
Forza Motorsport 2: 5-7, #4 Seed

San Francisco Optx Roster

Counter Strike Source: 4-8, #6 Seed
Dead or Alive Female: 11-1, #1 Seed
Dead or Alive Male: 6-6, #3 Seed
FIFA 08: 8-4, #2 Seed
Forza Motorsport 2: 4-8, #5 Seed

Match Order: DOA-M, FIFA, Forza Motorsport 2, Counter Strike:Source (Part 1), DOA-F, CS:S (Part 2)
Dallas has been performing incredibly so far. After a terrible start with one point losses, Dallas came shooting back up the rankings to go 9-3 through the season. Their divisions are incredibly solid, as only Barmoa ranks in the bottom two of FIFA.

San Francisco has been extremely inconsistent this season in most of their divisions. Only Stermy and Vanessa have provided consistent play for them. Vanessa only lost one match this season, and Stermy has won six of his last eight games.

The key matchup is Counter Strike and Forza Motorsport 2. In all six of their matchups, whoever won Counter Strike, won the franchise match. The map tonight is Tuscan, which is new this season but not too new to the teams.

Forza Motorsport 2 is also very important. In their three matchups this season, Dallas has won two out of three. They scored huge in a 6-1 victory, but also lost badly in a 5-2 match. If that happens, that may tip the scale. I think that San Francisco relies more heavily on Forza because they have the advantage in FIFA and the disadvantage in Counter Strike. If they score a 5-2 or 6-1 victory, this matchup is all but over.

Dead or Alive should equal itself out, as MASTER and Vanessa have consistently scored two points on their respective opponents. The biggest concern is if either of these players gets upset. If that happens, the team that gets upset will likely lose the franchise match.

Stermy should win his matchup, as he has won six out of his last eight matches and Barmoa has lost six out of his last seven. Stermy needs to score a strong point differential (+2) to help reduce the impact of Dallas’s Source team.

Again, this match comes down to Counter Strike. Likely, this game won’t be decided until the final round or two, and if history is right, then whoever takes the Counter Strike game takes the match. I still have to give the edge to Dallas’s Source team though. They have won nine straight (a new record) and have looked unstoppable.

Here’s how I predict the match plays out:

DOAM: 5-2 Venom
FIFA: 2-0 Optx
FORZA: 4-3 Optx
DOAF: 5-2 Optx
CSS: 11-7 Venom
Dallas wins: 21-20
Good luck tonight, players and predictors. It will be one hell of a night…

(Oh and again, a thank you to ReDeYe for his statistical help..)